The analysis by Ariadne researchers at the Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) shows, for example, that the use of renewable energies will increase by 2030 if the price of CO2 rises. Although it is associated with higher costs than a low CO2 price trend, the energy transition is progressing faster, which is why the cost-benefit balance of early high CO2 price signals is positive overall. Additional financial burdens on private households due to a rapidly rising CO2 price should also be compensated in order to reduce social inequalities.
The development of CO2 prices is often depicted as linear in various scenarios - but in fact the historical trend shows that prices are subject to fluctuations and are anything but linear. The assumption behind the linear price trend is that certificate volumes decrease continuously over time. However, this this fails to take into account other influences on the price, such as the fact that certificates can also be "stored" and used at a later date, i.e. quantities can be used at a later date. Among other things, this can lead to considerable price fluctuations.
Due to these price fluctuations, the effects on the expansion of renewable energies and the continued use of gas-fired power plants are not constant, but adapt to the actual CO2 price: In the event of a temporary slump in the CO2 price, for example, the expansion of renewable energies may be delayed due to there being less pressure to act. Among other things, analysis shows that a low CO2 price causes investments in wind and photovoltaics to be postponed, while at the same time the flow of money into gas-fired power plants and thus also the volume of emissions from the electricity sector increases. The researchers argue for the necessity and advantages of early high CO2 prices on the emissions market by 2030 in order to steer the transformation of the electricity sector towards a climate-neutral energy supply in a targeted manner.
Ariadne energy transition project: In a consortium of more than 27 research institutions, Ariadne is a pioneer in promoting a joint learning process together with politics, business and society, as well as researching possible options for shaping the energy transition and communicating important contextual knowledge for political decision-makers. Researchers for the Ariadne project include the Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy at the University of Stuttgart. The project is being funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) for three years.
As part of the Ariadne project, researchers from the Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy have already published several papers since 2020. This year, for example:
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