How resilient is our power grid?

The paper has been published in the  Energy Strategy Reviews journal DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2026.102162  

By 2030, 80 percent of Germany’s gross electricity consumption is expected to come from renewable energy sources. To achieve this, our electricity supply – which has so far relied primarily on nuclear power, coal, and natural gas – is undergoing a massive transition. How can we design the electricity system of the future so that it is not only climate-friendly, but also as robust and crisis-proof – in other words, as resilient as possible?

“That is a challenging question to answer: We are currently building a system that doesn’t yet exist anywhere else. We don’t have any past data to draw on,” says Prof. Kai Hufendiek, director of the Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER). “We must therefore rely on energy system analyses and models instead. These tools make it possible to simulate scenarios for future utility operations. From this, we can derive recommendations for action and improve the resilience of the power system.”

“The reliability of results from energy system analyses depends to a large extent on selecting the appropriate indicators,” says Erdal Tekin, a research associate at the IER. Indicators are quantitative metrics used to measure and evaluate the characteristics, performance, or objectives of an energy system. They make results understandable, comparable, and transparent.

Hufendiek and Tekin, together with their fellow researchers at the IER, have now developed a set of new indicators for assessing the resilience of power systems. The trade journal Energy Strategy Reviews has published its report on the proposals (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2026.102162 ).

"Our electricity system is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Existing resilience indicators, for example, have not yet adequately captured the specific characteristics of electricity from renewable energy sources,” says Tekin. "On the one hand, renewable energy can strengthen resilience by reducing dependence on energy imports. At the same time, however, they are prone to fluctuations – a resilient power system must also be prepared to address this issue. Our indicators also take such shifts into account." 

When it comes to resilience, many people often think first of all about security of supply — that is, ensuring that there is always enough electricity available for everyone. This is part of the concept of resilience, but it goes beyond that and can also encompass other energy policy objectives, such as cost-effectiveness or compliance with emission limits. The new indicators examine six dimensions of resilience: residual load, the condition of the grid infrastructure, generation diversity, cost trends, load coverage, and emissions.

Resilience indicators to date have mostly focused on short-term, event-driven responses. For example, they provide information about how well the power grid can withstand wars, crises, or natural disasters. In contrast, the new indicators place greater emphasis on factors that are not event-driven: They are designed for long-term stress analysis and are intended to provide insights into structural vulnerabilities – well before critical thresholds are reached. The researchers placed particular emphasis on the ease of use of the indicators in scenario-based power system models.

How much can we afford to invest in grid stability? Which is more important: stable electricity prices or reducing emissions? “Research alone cannot determine when an electricity system is considered resilient,” Hufendiek emphasizes. “This requires a political discourse in which conflicting goals are made transparent and prioritized.” The purpose of research is to provide a sound basis for decision-making. “Our new indicators have allowed us to fill in some gaps here, but we are still far from capturing all the factors relevant to the future – the task now is to further expand this new approach.”

The publication: 
Erdal Tekin, David Achenbach, Annika Gillich, Kai Hufendiek: Event-independent and anticipatory resilience indicators for future-oriented electricity system model analysis. Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 64, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2026.102162.

Ariadne: Providing a clear path through the energy transition
Research into new resilience indicators is part of the Ariadne Copernicus project, which is funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology, and Space. Ariadne researches energy transition strategies and their systemic impacts, as well as sectoral interactions. However, the focus is also on policy tools designed to achieve climate goals in an efficient and socially equitable manner. In addition to the resilience indicators, the IER contributed its expertise to a wide range of other Ariadne research questions.

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